Report No. 190
Dragon Baccarat Side Bets: House Edge From the Paytables
The Dragon 7 pays 40 to 1 but carries a 7.61% edge on eight decks, against 1.02% for Banker. The Dragon Bonus runs 2.65% to 9.37%.
The brief
The verdict first: a dragon in baccarat is a side bet, not a hand, and it is one of the more expensive wagers on the layout. In EZ Baccarat the Dragon 7 pays 40 to 1 when the Banker wins with a three-card 7, and on eight decks it carries a house edge of 7.61% against 1.02% for the Banker bet beside it. The Dragon Bonus, a different side bet, ranges from 2.65% to 9.37% depending on which side you back.
This report works through both bets from published rules and eight-deck probabilities. For the main-bet rules that set your edge, see our report on how to win the baccarat game.
What the Dragon
7 bet pays and when it wins
The Dragon 7 wins only on one narrow result: the Banker's hand totals 7 using three cards and the Player's hand totals less than 7. Rivers Casino Philadelphia states that the Dragon 7 pays 40 to 1 on exactly that outcome, and Massachusetts sets the same 40 to 1 price in its Midibaccarat Dragon 7 insurance rule.
Because the Banker needs a third card to reach a three-card total, Eliot Jacobson notes that the bet only wins when the dealer draws a third card. That condition is what makes it rare.
In EZ Baccarat, under the Massachusetts rules, a Banker bet that ends in a Dragon 7 pushes and is returned instead of paying.
How rare a Dragon 7 is on eight decks
The Wizard of Odds combinatorial table counts 112,633,011,329,024 Dragon 7 wins out of 4,998,398,275,503,360 possible eight-deck outcomes, a probability of 0.022534. That is roughly one hand in 44.
The table also lists 112,633,011,329,024 combinations where the Banker wins on a three-card 7 and the Banker main bet returns zero. The count is identical: every winning Dragon 7 is a Banker push, so the side bet pays on precisely the hands the main bet refuses to pay.
Jacobson's own eight-deck table gives a winning probability of 0.022530, the same figure to four decimal places.
Dragon 7 house edge against the Banker bet
At 40 to 1, a winning Dragon 7 returns 41 units including the stake. Multiply 41 by 0.022534 and the bet returns about 0.924 units per unit staked, which leaves the 7.61% house edge.
| Bet (EZ Baccarat, eight decks) | Pays | House edge |
|---|---|---|
| Banker | Even money, push on Dragon 7 | 1.02% |
| Dragon 7 | 40 to 1 | 7.61% |
Per 100 units bet, the Banker loses about 1.02 on average and the Dragon 7 about 7.61. The Banker bet's 1.02% edge makes it roughly 7.5 times cheaper to play per unit staked.
The Dragon Bonus: a separate side bet
The Dragon Bonus is a wager on either the Player or the Banker hand winning with a natural or by a margin of points, with the pay table set by each casino. Massachusetts lets the licensee select the pay table in its rules submission, so the payouts on one floor may not match another.
One rule decides a common close call. Under the Massachusetts text, a Dragon Bonus on the hand that shows a Natural 9 against a Natural 8 wins, while the bet on the Natural 8 loses.
On eight decks the Wizard of Odds puts the edge at 2.65% on the Player Dragon Bonus and 9.37% on the Banker side. The Banker Dragon Bonus pays even money on a natural win, which happens with probability 0.162589.
Dragon in baccarat strategy: what the numbers allow
Strategy here comes down to which bet you choose and how much of your action goes on it.
- The Banker bet, at 1.02%, is the cheapest wager in this report.
- If you want a Dragon Bonus, the Player side at 2.65% costs far less than the Banker side at 9.37%.
- The Dragon 7, at 7.61%, sits between the two Dragon Bonus sides.
- Check the posted Dragon Bonus pay table at each table, since the casino chooses it.
A table-minimum rule applies too: at Rivers Philadelphia, a side wager placed alone without a Banker or Player bet must meet the table minimum. Jacobson's article examines counting cards against the Dragon 7; that is a separate topic and is not covered here.
Massachusetts also offers a Panda 8 insurance wager at 25 to 1 under the same rules. This report does not cover its probabilities.
Common questions
What is a dragon bet in baccarat?
It is a side wager placed next to the main Banker or Player bet. In EZ Baccarat the Dragon 7 wins when the Banker makes a three-card 7 against a Player total under 7 and pays 40 to 1; the Dragon Bonus is a separate wager on one hand winning naturally or by a set margin.
What is the safest bet in baccarat?
Among the bets covered here, the EZ Baccarat Banker bet carries the lowest house edge at 1.02% on eight decks. Every Dragon side bet in this report costs more per unit staked.
What is the trick to baccarat?
The published figures show no bet with a player advantage. The practical lever is bet selection: the Banker bet keeps the house edge near 1%, while the Dragon 7 and the Banker Dragon Bonus sit between seven and ten times higher.
Documents we read
- Massachusetts Gaming Commission, Midibaccarat Rules, October 8, 2020
- Rivers Casino Philadelphia, EZ Baccarat, undated, accessed October 26, 2026
- Wizard of Odds, EZ Baccarat, August 3, 2026
- Wizard of Odds (Eliot Jacobson), Card Counting the Dragon Bet in Baccarat, August 3, 2026
- Wizard of Odds, Baccarat Side Bets, August 3, 2026
